If you have been watching television in the past several months, you are already seeing rapid fire political ads in between your favorite shows. For everyone else trying to purchase broadcast TV schedules this fall, here is an update on how political is going to affect that spend:
· The Florida Primary on 8/28 is now 8 days away.
· The Primary window opened July 14th. The General Election Window will be September 7ththrough November 6th.
· We have seen unprecedented activity to date vying after the Governor’s open seat, U.S. Senate seat and State races along with some key Issue spending.
· In the current quarter to date (the past 6 weeks) we have seen 22 active political advertisers spend an estimated $14M in the market for broadcast television. We’re forecasting $19-20M will be spent in the spot TV market for the primary, July-Aug.
· The general election is tougher to call. Expecting the Senate race spending to heat up (Nelson and Scott both have big war chests and PAC money backing).
· The Governor’s race will remain tight with whomever gets the nomination, both parties will see PAC backing.
· House races, issues, state races also in play. We are guessing the same kind of spending (another $20M), but that’s just what today’s crystal ball is saying.
· Top dayparts and/or programs purchased
· All news, morning, early and then late, prime time access (Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy are always a focus), and then maybe some sports.
· Comparison in spend from previous years: The Primary is the largest ever and expectation for general election will be a little lighter than 2016 Presidential General but larger than mid-elections of 2014.
So what does this all mean? In a nutshell:
As TV inventory shrinks and rates continue to increase, it will be important for advertisers to plan accordingly and consider a more efficient media mix or level up media budgets. Shifting Broadcast TV budgets to a mix of cable, OTT/TVE, social and digital video may allow for strategic alternatives during the most heated political period.